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ENSEMBLES Publications

Please add your publication(s) to the list below:

2009

• Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J. & Appenzeller, C. (2009) The return period of wind storms over Europe. Int. J. Climatol. 29: 437–459, doi:10.1002/joc.1794
• Rost, S., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Lucht, W., Falkenmark, M., Rockström, J. (2009) Global potential to increase crop production through water management in rainfed agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 4, 044002, doi: 10.1088/1748–9326/4/4/044002.
• Donat, M.G., Leckebusch, G.C., Pinto, J.G., Ulbrich, U. (2009): Examination of Wind Storms over Central Europe with respect to Circulation Weather Types and NAO phases. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.1982
• Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J.M. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith and T.N. Palmer (2009). Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135, 1538–1559, doi:10.1002/qj.464.
• Douville, H. (2009) Relative contributions of soil and snow hydrology to seasonal climate predictability: a pilot study. Climate Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382–008–0508–1.
• Peings, Y., H. Douville (2009) Influence of the Eurasian snow cover on the Indian summer monsoon variability in observations and CMIP3 simulations. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382–009–0565–0.
• Fronzek, S., T.R. Carter, J. Räisänen, L. Ruokolainen and M. Luoto (2009), Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: a case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9679-y
• Hanel, M., T. A. Buishand, and C. A. T. Ferro (2009), A nonstationary index flood model for precipitation extremes in transient regional climate model simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D15107, doi:10.1029/2009JD011712.
• Kendon, E. J., D. P. Rowell and R. G. Jones (2009), Mechanisms and reliability of future projected changes in daily precipitation, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382–009–0639-z
• Della-Marta, P. M., and J. G. Pinto (2009), Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14703, doi:10.1029/2009GL038557
• Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R.S., Lloyd, S.J., Holt, T., Tol, R.S.J (2009); The direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity, Arch. Env. & Occ. Health., 64 (4), 217–227.
• Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and C. Appenzeller (2009): Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels? Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1460–1479.
• Mason, S.J. and A.P. Weigel (2009): A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331–349.
• Weigel, A.P. and N.E. Bowler (2009): Comment on “Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?”. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 135, 535–539.
• Weisheimer, A., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel (2009), ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040896 (open access)
• Hatzaki, M., Flocas, H.A., Giannakopoulos, C., Maheras P., 2008:The Impact of the Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern on the Mediterranean Climate. Journal of Climate, 22, 977–992, DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2519.1.

2008

• Ulbrich, U., Pinto, J.G., Kupfer, H., Leckebusch, G.C., Spangehl, T., Reyers, M. (2008): Changing northern hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. Journal of Climate, 21(8), 1669–1679
• Weigel, A.P., D. Baggenstos, M. A. Liniger, F. Vitart and C. Appenzeller (2008): Probabilistic verification of monthly temperature forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5162–5182.
• Hannachi, A. and A.G. Turner 2008: Preferred structures in large scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in Had CM 3, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134, 469–480. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1002/qj.236
• Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J., Schaphoff, S. 2008: Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resources Research 44, W09405, doi:10.1029/2007WR006331.
• Rost, S., Gerten, D., Heyder, U. 2008: Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management. Advances in Geosciences 18, 43–50.
• Crueger T., E. Roeckner, T. Raddatz, R. Schnur, P. Wetzel (2008), Ocean dynamics determine the response of oceanic CO2-uptake to climate change. Clim. Dyn., 31, 151–168. doi 10.1007/s00382–007–0342-x. http://www.springerlink.com/content/f88j83275303h590/fulltext.pdf
• Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2008): Reliability of climate change projections of precipitation: Towards “seamless” climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 459–470, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89–4−459.
• Berner, J., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, G. Shutts and A. Weisheimer (2008). Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 366, 2561–2579, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2008.0033.
• Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E., 2008: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geoscience, 1, 511–514 (2008). doi:10.1038/ngeo262
• Gualdi S., E. Scoccimarro and A. Navarra, 2008: Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1
• Carril A., S. Gualdi, A. Cherchi, and A. Navarra, 2008: Heatwaves in Europe: areas of homogeneous variability and links with the regional to large-scale atmospheric and SSTs anomalies. Clim. Dyn., 30, 77–98
• Navarra A., S. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Behera, J-J Luo, S. Masson, E. Guilyardi, P. Delecluse, and T. Yamagata, 2008: Atmospheric horizontal resolution affects tropical climate variability in coupled models. J. Climate, 21, 730–750
• Conil, S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2008) Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to the boreal summer predictability ? Climate Dyn., 32, 75–93, doi:10.1007/s00382–008–0375–9
• Xavier, P. K., J. P. Duvel, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2008: Boreal summer intraseasonal variability in coupled seasonal hindcasts, J. Climate (in press)
• Kendon, E.J., D.P. Rowell, R.G. Jones and E. Buonomo, 2008: Robustness of future changes in local precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 21, 4280–4297, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2082.1
• Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and C. Appenzeller (2008): Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 134, 241–260.
• Bellucci, A., S. Gualdi, E. Scoccimarro and A. Navarra (2008): NAO-ocean circulation interactions in a coupled general circulation model, Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382–008–0408–4
• Guilyardi E., A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang, A. Capotondi, G.J. van Oldenborgh. and T. Stockdale, 2008: Understanding El Nino in Ocean-Atmosphere general circulation models: progress and challenges. Bull. A. Met. Soc., in press

2007

• Alessandri A., S. Gualdi, J. Polcher, and A. Navarra, 2007: Effects of Land-Surface-Vegetation on the boreal summer surface climate of a GCM. J. Climate, 20, 255–278
• Cherchi A., S. Gualdi, S. Behera, J-J Luo, S. Masson, T. Yamagata, and A. Navarra, 2007: The influence of Tropical Indian Ocean SST on the Indian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 20, 3083–3105
• Lee-Drbohlav H.-K., S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra, 2007: A Diagnostic Study of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode in El Nino and Non-El Nino Years. J. Climate, 20, 2961–2977
• Bondeau, A., P.C. Smith, S. Zaehle, S. Schaphoff, W. Lucht, W. Cramer, D. Gerten, H. Lotze-Campen, C. Müller, M. Reichstein, and B. Smith (2007): Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology, 13, 679–706.
• Conil, S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2007) The relative roles of soil moisture and SST in climate variability explored within ensembles of AMIP-type simulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 125–145, doi:10.1007/s00382–006–0172–2.
• Douville, H., S. Conil, S. Tyteca, A. Voldoire (2007) Soil moisture memory and West African monsoon predictability: artefact or reality ? Climate Dyn., 28, 723–742, doi:10.1007/s00382–006–0207–8.
• Joly, M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville, P. Terray, J-F. Royer (2007) African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs in a set of IPCC4 coupled models. Climate Dyn., 29, 1–20, doi:10.1007/s00382–006–0215–8.
• Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2007): Seasonal Forecast Datasets - A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections? CLIVAR Exchanges, 43, 6–7.
• Liniger, M.A., H. Mathis, C. Appenzeller and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2007): Realistic greenhouse gas forcing and seasonal forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04705, doi:10.1029/2006GL028335, 2007.
• Lloyd, S.J, Kovats, R.S, Armstrong,B.A. 2007. Global diarhroea morbidity, weather and climate. Climate Research, 34, 119–127.
• Marletto V., Ventura F., Fontana G., Tomei F., 2007. Wheat growth simulation and yield prediction with seasonal forecasts and a numerical model. Agric. For. Meteorol., 147: 71–79
• Osborne, T.M., D.M. Lawrence, A.J. Challinor, J.M. Slingo and T.R. Wheeler, 2007: Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model, Global Change Biology, 13, 169–183
• Rodwell, M.J., and T.N. Palmer (2007): Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 129–146, doi: 10.1002/qj.23. 2007.
• Shutts, G.J., and T.N. Palmer (2007): Convective forcing fluctuations in a cloud-resolving model: Relevance to the stochastic parameterization problem. J. Climate, 20, 187–202, 2007.
• Troccoli, A. and Palmer, T. N. (2007): Ensemble decadal prediction from analysed initial conditions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2079.
• Turner, A.G., P.M. Inness and J.M. Slingo, 2007: The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 1143–1157. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1002/qj.82
• Turner, A.G., P.M. Inness and J.M. Slingo, 2007: The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 1159–1173. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1002/qj.83
• Vitart, F. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2007): Impact of an increase of greenhouse gas concentrations during the past 50 years on tropical storms in a coupled GCM. Tellus A, 59, 417–427.
• Vitart, F., M.R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T.N. Palmer, T.N. Stockdale, M.K. Davey, S. Ineson and A. Weisheimer (2007): Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740, 2007.
• Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and C. Appenzeller (2007a): The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 118–124.
• Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and C. Appenzeller (2007b): Generalization of the discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores for weighted multimodel ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2778–2785.
• Weisheimer, A., F. Doblas-Reyes, P. Rogel, N. Keenlyside, M. Balmaseda, J. Murphy, D. Smith, M. Collins, B. Bhaskaran, and T. Palmer (2007). Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960–2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project. ECMWF Tech. Memo., 521.

2006

• Ruti, P.M, D. Di Rocco and S. Gualdi, 2006: Impact of increased vertical resolution on simulation of tropical climate. Theor Appl Climatol, 85, 61–80
• Alexander, L.V., X. Zhang, T.C. Peterson, J. Caesar, B.Gleason, A. Klein Tank, M. Haylock, D. Collins, B. Trewin, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Tagipour, P. Ambenje, K. Rupa Kumar, J. Revadekar, G. Griffiths, L. Vincent, D.B. Stephenson, J. Burn, E. Aguilar, M. Brunet, M. Taylor, M. New, P. Zhai, M. Rusticucci, J.L. Vazquez-Aguirre, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), Vol. 111, D05109.
• New, M., Bruce Hewitson, David B. Stephenson, Alois Tsiga, Andries Kruger, Atanasio Manhique, Bernard Gomez, Caio A. S. Coelho, Dorcas Ntiki Masisi, Elina Kululanga, Ernest Mbambalala, Francis Adesina, Hemed Saleh, Joseph Kanyanga, Juliana Adosi, Lebohang Bulane, Lubega Fortunata, Marshall L. Mdoka and Robert Lajoie, 2006: Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over Southern and West Africa, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), Vol. 111, D14102.
• Beniston, M, D. B. Stephenson, O. B. Christensen, C. A.T. Ferro, C. Frei, S. Goyette, K. Halsnaes, T. Holt, K. Jylha, B. Koffi, J. Palutikof, R. Scholl, T. Semmler, and K. Woth, 2006: Future Extreme Events in European Climate: An Exploration of Regional Climate Model Projections, Climatic Change, PRUDENCE special issue, (in press).
• Conil S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2006) The relative roles of soil moisture and SST in climate variability explored within ensembles of AMIP-type simulations. Climate Dyn. (in press)
• Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Hagedorn, R., Palmer, T.N., Morcrette, J.-J., 2006: “Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts”. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L07708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025061.
• Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2006). Correction to “Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07712, doi:10.1029/2006GL025821.
• Douville H., Salas-Mélia, D., Tyteca, S, (2006): On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming. Climate Dynamics, 26, 367–385, doi:10.1007/s00382–005–0088–2.
• Douville H. (2006): Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability? Geophys. Res. Letters, 33, L02701, doi:10.1029/2005GL024967.
• Douville H. (2006) Impact of regional SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon response to global warming in the CNRM climate model. J Climate, 19, 2008–2024.
• Joly M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville, P. Terray, J-F. Royer (2006) African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs in a set of IPCC4 coupled models. Climate Dyn. (revised)
• Ringer, M.A., McAvaney, B.J., Andronova, N., Buja, L.E., Esch, M., Ingram, W.J., Li, B., Quaas, J., Roeckner, E., Senior, C.A., Soden, B.J., Volodin, E.M., Webb, M.J., Williams, K.D., 2006: “Global mean cloud feedbacks in idealized climate change experiments”. GRL (in press).
• Thomson, M.C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Mason, S.J., Hagedorn, R., Connor, S.J., Phindela, T., Morse, A.P., Palmer, T.N., 2006: “Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles”. Nature, 439, 576–579.
• Webb, M.J., Senior, C.A., Sexton, D.M.H., Ingram, W.J., Williams, K.D., Ringer, M.A., McAvaney, B.J., Colman, R., Soden, B.J., Gudgel, R., Knutson, T., Emori, S., Ogura, T., Tsushima, Y., Andronova, N., Li, B., Musat, I., Bony, S., Taylor, K.E., (2006): “On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles”. Climate Dynamics 04 February, 2006 DOI: 10.1007/s00382–006–0111–2
• Williams, K.D., Ringer, M.A., Senior, C.A., Webb, M.J., McAvaney, B.J., Andronova, N., Bony, S., Dufresne, J-L., Emori, S., Gudgel, R., Knutson, T., Li, B., Lo, K., Musat, I., Wegner, J., Slingo, A., Mitchell, J.F.B., 2006: “Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models”. Climate Dynamics 26, 2–3 (145–165) DOI: 10.1007/s00382–005–0067–7
• Fronzek, S., M. Luoto and T.R. Carter (2006). Potential effect of climate change on the distribution of palsa mires in subarctic Fennoscandia. Climate Research, 32(1), 1–12.

2005

• Palmer, T.N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, and A. Weisheimer (2005). Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1750.
• Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2005). Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20721, doi:10.1029/2005GL023365.
• Ferro, C.A.T., A. Hannachi, and D.B. Stephenson, 2005: Simple non-parametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather, J. Climate, 18, 4344–4354.
• McGregor, G.R., C.A.T. Ferro, and D.B. Stephenson, 2005: Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events in Europe. In: Kirch W, Menne B, Bertollini R (Eds.), Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Public Health Responses. Dresden, Springer, 13–23. 303pp
• Beniston, M., and D.B. Stephenson, 2004: Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions, Global and Planetary Change, 44, 1–9.
• Beniston, M., 2005: August 2005 intense rainfall event in Switzerland: Not necessarily an analog for strong convective events in a greenhouse climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025573.
• Beniston, M., 2005: Warm winter spells in the Swiss Alps: Strong heat waves in a cold season? A study focusing on climate observations at the Saentis high mountain site. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL021478.
• Douville, H. 2005: Limitations of time-slice experiments for predicting regional climate change over South Asia. Climate Dynamics, 24, 373–391, DOI: 10.1007/s00382–004–0509–7.
• Hewitt, C.D., 2005: The ENSEMBLES Project: Providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Published article appears in the EGGS newsletter, 13, 22–25. http://www.the-eggs.org/?issueSel=24
• Hewitt, C.D., 2005: ENSEMBLES – providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Published article appears in Parliament Magazine, 11 July 2005, p. 57.
• Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Samuelsson, P., Rummukainen, M., Ullerstig, A., Willén U. and Wyser, K., 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology, 108, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp.

2004

• Hewitt, C.D and Griggs, D.J., 2004: Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Published article appears in Eos, 85, 566.
• Murphy, J. M. et al, 2004: Quantification of modeling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430, 768–772.
• Leckebusch, G.C. and Ulbrich, U., 2004: “On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change.” Global and Planetary Change, 44 (1–4), 181–193 (from the MICE project)